In the good old days of the Soviet Union,
the leadership of the Kremlin did not really have to care much about neither
public opinion nor world markets. During
the 1980s, the citizens of the Soviet Europe did not even know there was a war
on in Afghanistan until the dead and wounded started to return and mothers
started to take to the streets to prevent their sons from being drafted.
Things have changed a great deal since
then. Take a moment to consider this:
This graph
(courtesy of XE http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR&view=1M)
shows the fall of the Russian Ruble against the Euro since mid January.
Here are some “highlights”
of events in neighbouring Ukraine.
A. 22 January: Street protests in Kiev spread beyond the capital to
other cities.
B. 12 February: in the Russian weekly Zavtra, the Izborsk Club publish an
article titled Save Ukraine! In it,
the authors appeal for Russian intervention to prevent the Ukraine’s, as they
put it, fascist and
Nazi creeping coup”. According to the
Centre of Research on Globalization, the Izbork Club is a think tank that has
gained prominence under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. http://www.globalresearch.ca/russias-save-ukraine-memorandum-prevent-the-ukraine-from-going-fascist/5368608
C. 18 February: Night of violent riots in Kiev
with deaths, as police surround Independence Square. There are reports of police using plastic and
live rounds, as well as fragmentation grenades against protesters. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26248021
D. 21 February: EU intervention leads to a
compromise agreement being reached between President Yanukovych and demonstration leaders agreeing to early
elections and the return to the 2004 constitution. The Ukrainian Parliament passes a bill
approving the release of former president Yulia Timoshenko.
E. 22 Febuary: President Yanukovych flees the
capital after being impeached by parliament. 25 Febuary sees Pro-Russian Aleksey Chaly
appointed mayor of Sevastopol as pro-Russian rallies in Crimea gain
strength. Russian troops mobilise
outside their barracks.
F. 2 March: The day after the Russian Parliament approves
the use of troops in the Ukraine, Russian forces take over the Crimea.
G. 5 March: US Secretary John Kerry has
face-to-face talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian
foreign minister Andriy Deshchytsia. Talks fail as Lavrov refuses to talk with Deshchytsia.
H. 6 March onwards. US imposes visa sanctions on selected Russian
and Ukrainian officials and Russian annexation of the Crimea continues.
In the past, the Soviets controlled very
effectively what their people were aware of, both in their empire and in the
world beyond. That is no longer
possible. Nor was the Ruble a transferable currency. It is now.
During the past week, I was listening to City Radio, Moscow. There was a
phone-in during which business people and small traders had made the link
between the Ukrainian crisis and the fall of the Ruble against the Euro. Now the drop in value may not seem much:
around about ten percent. But, as one restaurateur
pointed out, he has to import seventy five percent of his ingredients. The fall in the value of the Ruble is causing
real hardship for business, some are starting to fail, and they are vocal in their complaints.
The
unwritten deal with Putin and the Russian people is that in exchange for power,
he will provide economic stability. The
longer this crisis continues, one very much laid at his feet by the business owners phoning in, the more he will fail.
One also has to wonder what the reaction of
the people of the Crimea will be when they convert to the Ruble (currently
scheduled for April), only to find themselves instantly more poor.
Other sources:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/timeline-ukraine-political-crisis-201431143722854652.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution
Other sources:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/timeline-ukraine-political-crisis-201431143722854652.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution
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